Fantasy catcher debate

I should note that my smack was intended somewhat facetiously, but I will stand by it and take responsibility for my apparently abbrasive remarks. First I should note that Mauer was my number 1 ranked catcher and I would have chosen him over McCann, Martin, Soto, or anyone else. With this in mind, I was clearly thrilled when Mauer was still available even after the other three were taken off the board. I find it completely understandable that McCann was chosen first, especially when considering he has been quite successful for Robbie in the past. To classify a Mauer-McCann dilemma as a crapshoot is okay with me. You're getting two totally different players who give you completely different statlines. Mauer's was my preference from day one. As Troy did, I guess I'll examine each player and try to express my pre-draft feelings on each (inevitably, there will be some hindsight mixed in - I will accept my just punishment).

MCCANN - No problems with making Brian McCann the number 1 catcher in the league. Clearly provides more power than any other catcher (although Soto rivaled him in his rookie season). Over the past three seasons, McCann's lowest RBI total was between 87-93, so you know what you're getting. A career .297 hitter, though it's hard to know if you're getting the .333 McCann from his breakout '06 season, or the .270 McCann that followed, or the .301 McCann last season - which is probably the safest assumption to make. Has the natural catcher run defeciency, having scored a career-high 68 last season (indeed, his .333 avg, 24 HR, 93 RBI line from '06 netted only 61 runs). Eye problems this year were clearly unforeseeable. (That sentence was brilliant art.) Draft McCann if you're looking for power from a traditionally defensively-driven position that is often a liability on fantasy rosters.

MARTIN - His '06 season, which gave him 415 ABs, was his introduction to the limelight as an up-and-coming top tier catcher. During the season, he hit .282 with 10 HR, 65 RBI and R, and even added 10 steals. His '07 season did nothing to diminish the hype, and he became arguably the best catcher in the game, hitting .293 with a perhaps-uncharacteristic 19 HR, to go with 87 RBI and R, plus a 21 in the stolen bases category that would make fantasy owners water at the mouth. Never really caught fire in '08 as his average dipped to a still-respectable .280 (especially for a catcher) with more reasonable power numbers (13 HR, 69 RBI, while still posting an impressive 87 runs). His 18 stolen bases were again a huge plus at the catcher spot. Also, he entered '09 with eligibility at 3B, which was perhaps perceived as more useful than it really is (alas, there is no shortage of third basemen who can give you 15 HR and 80 RBI, although the stolen bases are still a plus at that position).

SOTO - Hyped following his '07 impression, which saw him hit .389 over only 54 AB. Sort of the Pablo Sandoval of '08. Unlike Sandoval, Soto lived up to all of the hyped, hitting .285 with 23 HR, 86 RBI, and 66 runs (again, typical low-run total for a catcher). Not much reason to be down on him for '09, other than a short track record and perhaps superstitions of the dubious sophomore slump. Essentially, he had one year of McCann-like numbers, so no reason to draft him over McCann (who averaged those numbers over the last three years) unless you're expecting him to improve and hit 30 HR and 100 RBI...

MAUER - Blew up in '06, taking the batting title with a .347 mark, posting 13 HR, 84 RBI, and 86 runs. The HR mark would turn out to be an aberration, as his '07 season slumped to a .293 average with just 7 HR, 60 RBI, and 62 R. However, returned to form in '08, hitting .328 with 85 RBI and 98 runs, but only 9 HR. A career .320 hitter, but don't expect anything more than 8-12 HR. However, entered '09 with some injury issues...

Clearly, my affinity for Mauer is NOT the result of disdain for any of the other catchers. In my recent evaluation, I have become aware that all four candidates were clearly in the top tier, and could be counted upon for productive seasons. Alas, let me explain why I had Mauer as my top catcher.

With any player, you're going to get good production in certain categories and a lack of production in other categories (save for such rare players as Pujols, Rodriguez, Wright, etc.). Thus, a player's value is often based on the preference of the stat categories which they tend to produce. For instance, it may in fact be preferable to have Adam Dunn on your roster than Ichiro Suzuki, in the case that you are coveting 40 HRs over a .320+ batting average. For this reason, comparing players of different tendencies is sometimes a touchy matter I suppose.

In comparing McCann with Soto, I felt that they were very comparable in their production in 2008 (both hit 23 HR, McCann drove in 1 more run and scored 2 more). I ranked McCann above Soto because I felt McCann was much more likely to produce those numbers again in '09. Note the fact that McCann, Martin, and Mauer both recessed considerably in the season immediately following their breakout year (Martin in '08, Mauer and McCann in '07). I also felt that McCann had the advantage in average, feeling that his .301 mark in '08 was a true reflection of his career numbers (.297) as was Soto's .285 mark (.279 career).

When comparing McCann with Martin, there was no question in my mind that McCann would be the better choice. Martin's only true advantage over any of the other catchers in question was his stolen base ability, which would possibly net up to 20 steals - and, to a lesser extent, his 3B eligibility. My major concern with Martin was I felt like his career was already regressing. I know I have noted that each of these guys recessed in the year following their breakout/best year, and Martin's '08 season could be dismissed as such. But personally, I felt a different vibe about Martin, and expected his '09 totals to be more similar to his '08 totals than his '07 ones. I suppose it wouldn't be wrong for anyone to expect a return to the nearly 20 HRs and 90 RBI production, but that was not my feeling. My opinion of Martin was as a .280 hitter, with about 15 HR, 70 RBI, and 80 runs. His 15-20 steals, in my opinion, would not make up the difference to McCann's line, which I felt would be somewhere around .300/25/90/65.

Mauer is unique from the other three in that he is average is far superior to "satisfactory." In my opinion, the chance to get a batting champion in the catcher spot would be too much to pass up. Unlike HR, RBI, R, and most of the other stats, a low average by one player can negatively affect the rest of one's team totals. In my opinion, it is easier to make up the counting stats (i.e., the non-average ones) than it is to account for a low average. Having a career .320 (.320!!) hitter in the catcher spot is such a plus to me that I would accept a .320/0/25/25 line with joyful exultation. Moreover, Mauer's lack of home runs does not reflect an anemic amount of power (in the case of slugging percentage). Aware that a guy like Ichiro or Chone Figgins can tear apart a team's slugging percentage just as easily as Adam Dunn can damage a team's avg., I carefully noted that Mauer's slugging percentage was not unreparably below those of the other top catcher. In fact, Mauer's career .466 SLG is significantly better than Martin's .424 mark, and only slightly below Soto's .474. McCann's .500 slugging percentage was significantly better than any of the others in question. Thus, in reference to all other than McCann, Mauer's slugging percentage was comparable or better than any other option, leaving his HR total as his only defeciency. Mauer has produced seasons of 84 and 85 RBI within the last three years: Martin only topped 70 once during this period (with 87), and Soto's mark of 86 last season was not significantly superior. McCann, again holds the advantage, posting 93, 92, and 87 in the last seasons, respectively.

Clearly. Unmistakeably. The question was simply between McCann or Mauer in my mind. Who would I want in my lineup at the "C" slot? I think it is fair to assume that both McCann's and Mauer's '08 statistics were accurate reflections of their mean ability and that their '09 numbers would be in line with them. In 2008, McCann posted marks of .301 (.004 above his career average), 23 HR (1 off his career high), 87 RBI (6 lower than his career high), and 68 runs (7 above his career high). Mauer his .328 (.008 above his career mark), 9 HRs (4 lower than his career high), 85 RBI (1 above his career high), and 98 runs (12 above his career high).

I will go out on a limb here and post what I would consider (and did consider, at the time) fair projections of each player's 2009 stats, based on their career numbers and also placing slightly more value in last season. With some room error, let us assume that these are fair assumptions for each player:

McCann: .300, 25 HR, 90 RBI, 65 runs.
Mauer: .320, 10 HR, 80 RBI, 85 runs.

It is only fair to add that McCann's slugging percentage would likely supercede Mauer's by roughly 30 points.

I decided that Mauer was the more productive player for a catcher in a fantasy lineup. You won't find .320 at catcher anywhere in the league. Heck, you will struggle to find .320 anywhere at any position in the league. I can find guys who will knock 20-25 homers at almost any other position, and Mauer's run total (underrated, I think, because it is uncharacteristically high for a catcher) more than makes up for McCann's RBI advantage. It basically becomes a battle between average and HRs. At catcher, I certainly value average more, because Mauer's actually would pull up my entire lineup's average...from the catcher spot! What a luxury! Meanwhile, I can do without the 10-15 homers over the course of an entire season.

Clearly, since the argument requires such explanation, McCann is certainly just as viable as the top catcher choice (as he turned out to be). It was simply a matter of preferance that had me valuing Mauer of McCann, and the fact that I felt a lack of power at catcher would be far less damaging than a lack of average (although, McCann's average is a "lack" only when compared to Mauer's).

However, I think it is ridiculous to rank Martin and Soto over Mauer, especially when realizing that ours was not the only league to do so. Alas, many experts ranked Mauer in the 4th spot. I'm not saying it wasn't the consensus. I'm just saying it was an absurd consensus. Admittedly, that's easy to say at this point of the season. I would not be depressed if I had chosen McCann over Mauer (in Robbie's case), but had I been one who selected Martin or Soto with Mauer still on the board, I couldn't live with myself. Mauer's '09 early power surge aside, I think the choice clearly should have come down to McCann and Mauer at the top tier, with Soto and Martin following. Obviously, I'm not complaining. Honestly - I got Mauer after Martin and Soto had been selected?! No complaints or regrets here...just perhaps a little bit of good-fun gloating and exhiliration at the providence that dropped him into my lap.